V-Lab
Medco Energi Intl Tbk Pt Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
0.32
1 Week
0.37
1 Month
0.33
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0020 | 1.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0360 | 4.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8911 | 223.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1458 | 8.20*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Medco Energi Intl Tbk Pt Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities