V-Lab
Macquarie Technology Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
5,279.07
decreased by 437.54
1 Week
5,844.81
increased by 128.20
1 Month
7,100.48
increased by 1,383.87
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 27, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8592 | 0.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1252 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8748 | 0.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.2631 | -0.42 |
| γ2 | 1.7882 | 0.12 |
| γ3 | -1.4154 | -0.05 |
| γ4 | 1.5853 | 0.05 |
| γ5 | -0.9188 | -0.04 |
| γ6 | 0.0931 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.1310 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 0.0457 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.1225 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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