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Macquarie Technology Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

5,279.07

decreased by 437.54

1 Week

5,844.81

increased by 128.20

1 Month

7,100.48

increased by 1,383.87

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Macquarie Technology Group Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 27, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8592
0.04
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1252
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8748
0.02
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-1.2631
-0.42
γ21.7882
0.12
γ3-1.4154
-0.05
γ41.5853
0.05
γ5-0.9188
-0.04
γ60.0931
0.00
γ70.1310
0.00
γ80.0457
0.00
γ90.1225
0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

77016 days