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AXA Mansard Insurance PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

1,289.04

decreased by 67.63

1 Week

1,418.59

increased by 61.92

1 Month

1,419.06

increased by 62.39

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AXA Mansard Insurance PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 20, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9856
6.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0495
3.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8817
24.02***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.3260
-4.30***
γ20.4737
4.07***
γ3-0.2379
-2.29**
γ40.0865
0.73
γ5-0.0774
-0.67
γ60.2556
2.06**

Persistence:

0.931

Half-life:

10 days