V-Lab
AXA Mansard Insurance PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
1,289.04
decreased by 67.63
1 Week
1,418.59
increased by 61.92
1 Month
1,419.06
increased by 62.39
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 20, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9856 | 6.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0495 | 3.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8817 | 24.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.3260 | -4.30*** |
| γ2 | 0.4737 | 4.07*** |
| γ3 | -0.2379 | -2.29** |
| γ4 | 0.0865 | 0.73 |
| γ5 | -0.0774 | -0.67 |
| γ6 | 0.2556 | 2.06** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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