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AXA Mansard Insurance PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

1,319.40

decreased by 31.68

1 Week

1,370.01

increased by 18.93

1 Month

1,260.97

decreased by 90.11

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:59 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of AXA Mansard Insurance PLC ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 20, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 157% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5322
1.19
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0142
7.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9747
826.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0223
6.97***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days