V-Lab
AXA Mansard Insurance PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
1,073.30
1 Week
1,238.86
1 Month
1,242.46
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 20, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 354% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0668 | 1.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8083 | 20.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2365 | 4.12*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0468 | 1.93* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9532 | 32.12*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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