V-Lab
Linc Ab Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
6,607.39
increased by 55.73
1 Week
6,682.17
increased by 130.51
1 Month
7,342.63
increased by 790.97
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 28, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7280 | 11.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0794 | 4.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8291 | 17.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.7728 | -14.74*** |
| γ2 | 1.2508 | 13.46*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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