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V-Lab

Linc Ab Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

6,607.39

increased by 55.73

1 Week

6,682.17

increased by 130.51

1 Month

7,342.63

increased by 790.97

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Linc Ab ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 28, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7280
11.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0794
4.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8291
17.90***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.7728
-14.74***
γ21.2508
13.46***

Persistence:

0.908

Half-life:

7 days