V-Lab
Linc Ab ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
5,751.98
1 Week
5,893.48
1 Month
6,861.93
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 28, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1064 | 0.14 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7782 | 10.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1063 | -0.07 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1361 | 0.29 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8620 | 1.80* |
Persistence:
0.831
Half-life:
4 days
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