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Linc Ab Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

6,087.80

increased by 22.20

1 Week

6,253.40

increased by 187.80

1 Month

6,954.48

increased by 888.88

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Linc Ab ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 28, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.98
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0696
14.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9265
360.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0078
0.96

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days