V-Lab
Linc Ab Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
6,087.80
increased by 22.20
1 Week
6,253.40
increased by 187.80
1 Month
6,954.48
increased by 888.88
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 28, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.98 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0696 | 14.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9265 | 360.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0078 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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