V-Lab
Rojukiss International Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
4,372.91
increased by 277.68
1 Week
4,255.16
increased by 159.93
1 Month
6,206.57
increased by 2,111.34
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 19, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5189 | 5.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2203 | 8.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7391 | 24.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0647 | -1.63 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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