V-Lab
Rojukiss International Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
2,456.64
1 Week
2,808.11
1 Month
4,868.85
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 19, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 139% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.16** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0940 | 17.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8407 | 205.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1305 | 11.89*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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