V-Lab
Jayshree Tea Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,121.82
increased by 439.12
1 Week
4,313.97
increased by 631.27
1 Month
5,398.81
increased by 1,716.11
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 620 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1839 | 7.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1551 | 3.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8438 | 20.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0178 | -2.99*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
620 days
Other Jayshree Tea Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities