V-Lab
Jayshree Tea ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,106.21
1 Week
4,259.93
1 Month
5,529.06
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1873 | 0.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7277 | 30.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1873 | -0.07 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.12 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.15 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.821
Half-life:
4 days
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