V-Lab
Asuransi Jiwa Syar Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, June 30th, 2026
1 Day
616.60
decreased by 205.39
1 Week
575.40
decreased by 246.59
1 Month
246.35
decreased by 575.64
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2017 to Jun 26, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 11363 trading days (~45.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2410 | 0.88 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3670 | 1.54 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6329 | 2.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -5.5825 | -5.99*** |
| γ2 | 3.7964 | 2.75*** |
| γ3 | 4.2216 | 4.42*** |
| γ4 | -2.7531 | -2.91*** |
| γ5 | 0.2388 | 0.21 |
| γ6 | -0.2576 | -0.10 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
11363 days
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