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Asuransi Jiwa Syar Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, June 30th, 2026

1 Day

616.60

decreased by 205.39

1 Week

575.40

decreased by 246.59

1 Month

246.35

decreased by 575.64

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Asuransi Jiwa Syar ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 18, 2017 to Jun 26, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 11363 trading days (~45.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2410
0.88
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3670
1.54
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6329
2.66***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-5.5825
-5.99***
γ23.7964
2.75***
γ34.2216
4.42***
γ4-2.7531
-2.91***
γ50.2388
0.21
γ6-0.2576
-0.10

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

11363 days