V-Lab
Isrotel Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
4,975.45
decreased by 721.37
1 Week
5,467.66
decreased by 229.16
1 Month
4,599.12
decreased by 1,097.70
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 07:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 19, 2007 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6096 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1724 | 5.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6940 | 14.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.4019 | -0.50 |
| γ2 | -2.2006 | -0.48 |
| γ3 | 7.5217 | 2.37** |
| γ4 | -5.5293 | -2.81*** |
| γ5 | 2.5571 | 2.08** |
| γ6 | -2.1353 | -1.90* |
| γ7 | 1.9925 | 2.03** |
| γ8 | -2.0980 | -2.17** |
| γ9 | 2.2166 | 2.15** |
| γ10 | -0.4478 | -0.43 |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
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