V-Lab
Idorsia Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
3,726.33
increased by 309.68
1 Week
3,496.84
increased by 80.19
1 Month
3,457.03
increased by 40.38
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 132 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9612 | 5.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0962 | 9.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8985 | 88.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0191 | 1.02 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
132 days
Other Idorsia Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities