V-Lab
Idorsia Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
5,564.38
decreased by 27.18
1 Week
5,134.21
decreased by 457.35
1 Month
5,561.13
decreased by 30.43
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~122 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9592 | 5.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.0966 | 9.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8977 | 88.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0219 | 1.43 |
0.994
Persistence122d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9592 | 5.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0966 | 9.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8977 | 88.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0219 | 1.43 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
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