V-Lab
Idorsia Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
3,330.08
increased by 16.96
1 Week
3,322.15
increased by 9.03
1 Month
3,334.64
increased by 21.52
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 442 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 157% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0394 | 12.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9280 | 445.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0619 | 13.06*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
442 days
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