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Idorsia Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

5,317.91

increased by 144.84

1 Week

5,205.31

increased by 32.24

1 Month

5,518.60

increased by 345.53

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Idorsia Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 484 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 157% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~484 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 157% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.68
αARCH0.0397
3.20***
βGARCH0.9277
111.67***
γleverage0.0622
3.27***

0.999

Persistence

484d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.68
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0397
3.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9277
111.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0622
3.27***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

484 days