V-Lab
Idorsia Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
5,317.91
increased by 144.84
1 Week
5,205.31
increased by 32.24
1 Month
5,518.60
increased by 345.53
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 484 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 157% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~484 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 157% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.68 |
| αARCH | 0.0397 | 3.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9277 | 111.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.0622 | 3.27*** |
0.999
Persistence484d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.68 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0397 | 3.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9277 | 111.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0622 | 3.27*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
484 days
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