V-Lab
Idorsia Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
5,243.44
1 Week
4,920.32
1 Month
5,328.80
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 86 | |
| αARCH | 0.0746 | 10.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9221 | 121.01*** |
| γleverage | -0.0746 | -8.80*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.48 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9529 | 14.53*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0471 | 8.41*** |
0.959
Persistence17d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0746 | 10.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9221 | 121.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0746 | -8.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.48 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9529 | 14.53*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0471 | 8.41*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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