V-Lab
International Co FOR INV & DEV Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
3,612.23
decreased by 23.57
1 Week
3,859.27
increased by 223.47
1 Month
5,192.83
increased by 1,557.03
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2008 to Jul 22, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3614 | 2.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1934 | 3.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7788 | 15.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.8683 | -1.90* |
| γ2 | 3.6598 | 2.25** |
| γ3 | -3.3506 | -3.19*** |
| γ4 | 3.5436 | 2.72*** |
| γ5 | -4.3927 | -2.23** |
| γ6 | 3.1674 | 1.75* |
| γ7 | -0.6847 | -0.64 |
| γ8 | -0.3696 | -0.39 |
| γ9 | 0.8097 | 0.72 |
| γ10 | -0.8260 | -0.76 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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