V-Lab
International Co FOR INV & DEV ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
3,700.79
1 Week
3,793.61
1 Month
4,852.32
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2008 to Jul 22, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1783 | 0.19 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5707 | 17.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 0.25 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.17 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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