V-Lab
Loive Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,729.62
1 Week
5,626.47
1 Month
7,235.67
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1026 | 1.60 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9437 | 143.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1026 | -0.83 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0015 | 1.38 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5696 | 20.21*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
Other Loive Co Ltd Analyses
Other ILLIQ-MFMEM Analyses on International Equities