V-Lab
Loive Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
7,288.32
increased by 1.43
1 Week
7,283.70
decreased by 3.19
1 Month
7,168.89
decreased by 118.00
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 60 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8580 | 4.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9886 | 37.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 6.6254 | 7.80*** |
| γ2 | -9.8793 | -6.04*** |
0.989
Persistence60d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8580 | 4.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9886 | 37.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 6.6254 | 7.80*** |
| γ2 | -9.8793 | -6.04*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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