V-Lab
Loive Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
11,960.95
increased by 1.87
1 Week
11,654.98
decreased by 304.10
1 Month
10,021.55
decreased by 1,937.53
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 30136 trading days (~119.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9475 | 0.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 1.46 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.0907 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
30136 days
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