V-Lab
International Co FOR INV & DEV Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
5,737.95
increased by 25.86
1 Week
5,748.03
increased by 35.94
1 Month
5,498.32
decreased by 213.77
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2008 to Jul 22, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9659 | 495.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0682 | 13.53*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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