Hakuhodo Dy Hldgs ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.12
1 Week
15.02
1 Month
13.91
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0634 | 0.29 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8783 | 147.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0634 | -0.14 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1914 | 0.65 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2823 | 1.08 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7031 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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