V-Lab
Commercial Credit And Fin ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
454.88
1 Week
412.27
1 Month
1,056.18
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2666 | 1.09 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8360 | 95.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2666 | -0.57 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9980 | 246.79*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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