Commercial Credit And Fin ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
3,689.08
1 Week
3,800.87
1 Month
6,695.74
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2011 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2642 | 1.11 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8383 | 93.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2642 | -0.57 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9980 | 248.09*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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