V-Lab
Commercial Credit And Fin Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
1,101.06
1 Week
1,182.81
1 Month
1,891.30
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8675 | 1.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0152 | 7.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9387 | 552.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0922 | 10.12*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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