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Commercial Credit And Fin Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

263.58

increased by 26.10

1 Week

218.30

decreased by 19.18

1 Month

585.20

increased by 347.72

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:56 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Commercial Credit And Fin ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9103
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2057
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7943
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.9004
0.00
γ2-4.3687
0.00
γ35.1497
0.01
γ4-1.6656
0.00
γ50.5132
0.00
γ6-2.4698
-0.01
γ73.3431
0.01
γ8-2.2111
-0.01
γ9-0.2246
0.00
γ103.5906
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

77016 days