V-Lab
Commercial Credit And Fin Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
263.58
increased by 26.10
1 Week
218.30
decreased by 19.18
1 Month
585.20
increased by 347.72
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9103 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2057 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7943 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.9004 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -4.3687 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 5.1497 | 0.01 |
| γ4 | -1.6656 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 0.5132 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -2.4698 | -0.01 |
| γ7 | 3.3431 | 0.01 |
| γ8 | -2.2111 | -0.01 |
| γ9 | -0.2246 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | 3.5906 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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