V-Lab
TOP Energy Co Ltd-A Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
242.34
1 Week
230.09
1 Month
225.53
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 110% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 5.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1184 | 8.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8166 | 147.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1300 | 11.45*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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