V-Lab
TOP Energy Co Ltd-A Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
217.15
decreased by 16.07
1 Week
206.58
decreased by 26.64
1 Month
205.67
decreased by 27.55
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 307 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7074 | 2.56** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2183 | 26.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7794 | 89.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.3055 | -4.05*** |
| γ2 | 0.9351 | 7.81*** |
| γ3 | -1.3139 | -21.45*** |
| γ4 | 1.0755 | 15.70*** |
| γ5 | -0.5749 | -7.80*** |
| γ6 | 0.3223 | 4.06*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
307 days
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