Shanghai Electric Power Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
42.67
1 Week
41.40
1 Month
28.77
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 2003 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 349 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2477 | 1.70* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7597 | 96.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0187 | -0.07 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3850 | 3.28*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9982 | 323.77*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
349 days
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