Shanghai Electric Power Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
65.69
1 Week
66.31
1 Month
66.30
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 2003 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 138% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6659 | 3.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.1151 | 4.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8053 | 95.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.1592 | 3.70*** |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6659 | 3.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1151 | 4.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8053 | 95.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1592 | 3.70*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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