Hakuhodo Dy Hldgs Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.49
decreased by 0.06
1 Week
13.82
increased by 0.27
1 Month
13.72
increased by 0.17
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 99% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1231 | 11.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0416 | 17.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9319 | 620.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0409 | 7.98*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
114 days
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