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Hakuhodo Dy Hldgs Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

13.49

decreased by 0.06

1 Week

13.82

increased by 0.27

1 Month

13.72

increased by 0.17

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Hakuhodo Dy Hldgs ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 18, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 99% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1231
11.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0416
17.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9319
620.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0409
7.98***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

114 days