V-Lab
HP Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
68.98
increased by 1.32
1 Week
68.81
increased by 1.15
1 Month
61.50
decreased by 6.16
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 347 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0467 | 9.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0661 | 14.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9319 | 207.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -0.32 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
347 days
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