How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	66
αARCH	0.0635	12.06***
βGARCH	0.8916	95.62***
γleverage	-0.0635	-1.23
λ₁tau intercept	0.4589	1.92*
λ₂forecast adj.	0.2538	5.89***
λ₃tau persistence	0.7381	16.67***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	66
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0635	12.06***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8916	95.62***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0635	-1.23
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.4589	1.92*
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.2538	5.89***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.7381	16.67***

V-Lab

HP Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other HP Inc Analyses