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Hira Textile Mills Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

3,183.13

decreased by 663.69

1 Week

4,839.86

increased by 993.04

1 Month

5,324.35

increased by 1,477.53

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hira Textile Mills Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 1, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5095
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2671
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7329
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0129
0.00
γ22.7131
0.00
γ3-8.0833
0.00
γ410.6545
0.04
γ5-8.9507
-0.03
γ64.1811
0.02
γ71.3741
0.03
γ8-4.6843
-0.02
γ93.6951
0.01
γ10-0.7982
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days