V-Lab
Hira Textile Mills Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
3,183.13
decreased by 663.69
1 Week
4,839.86
increased by 993.04
1 Month
5,324.35
increased by 1,477.53
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5095 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2671 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7329 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0129 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 2.7131 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -8.0833 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 10.6545 | 0.04 |
| γ5 | -8.9507 | -0.03 |
| γ6 | 4.1811 | 0.02 |
| γ7 | 1.3741 | 0.03 |
| γ8 | -4.6843 | -0.02 |
| γ9 | 3.6951 | 0.01 |
| γ10 | -0.7982 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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