V-Lab
Hira Textile Mills Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
3,569.67
1 Week
6,641.77
1 Month
7,678.15
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2310 trading days (~9.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5229 | 4.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6749 | 82.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3963 | -1.82* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0077 | 28.31*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9832 | 396.30*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2310 days
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