V-Lab
HelloFresh SE Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,595.45
increased by 44.28
1 Week
5,515.67
decreased by 35.50
1 Month
5,805.09
increased by 253.92
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 394 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9519 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1017 | 7.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8965 | 70.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0426 | 1.19 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
394 days
Other HelloFresh SE Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities