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HelloFresh SE Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

5,595.45

increased by 44.28

1 Week

5,515.67

decreased by 35.50

1 Month

5,805.09

increased by 253.92

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of HelloFresh SE ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 394 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9519
5.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1017
7.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8965
70.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0426
1.19

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

394 days