V-Lab
HelloFresh SE Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,740.89
increased by 107.78
1 Week
5,547.45
decreased by 85.66
1 Month
5,752.47
increased by 119.36
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1392 trading days (~5.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 45% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7461 | 4.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0767 | 19.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9054 | 326.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0347 | 5.47*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1392 days
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