V-Lab
Grp Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
11,122.13
decreased by 2,033.88
1 Week
12,923.01
decreased by 233.00
1 Month
9,237.21
decreased by 3,918.80
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2009 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 54 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3677 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1845 | 9.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8027 | 38.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1495 | 0.44 |
| γ2 | 0.3759 | 0.72 |
| γ3 | -1.4336 | -2.47** |
| γ4 | 1.0830 | 1.47 |
| γ5 | 0.7785 | 1.22 |
| γ6 | -3.4680 | -5.19*** |
| γ7 | 5.8457 | 4.68*** |
| γ8 | -6.7946 | -4.26*** |
| γ9 | 7.7876 | 4.68*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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