V-Lab
Grp Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
10,066.28
increased by 980.41
1 Week
8,377.00
decreased by 708.87
1 Month
7,766.89
decreased by 1,318.98
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 61 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3758 | 3.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1878 | 9.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8008 | 38.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1401 | 0.39 |
| γ2 | 0.3655 | 0.69 |
| γ3 | -1.4195 | -2.55** |
| γ4 | 1.1444 | 1.58 |
| γ5 | 0.6207 | 0.98 |
| γ6 | -3.2237 | -5.08*** |
| γ7 | 5.6187 | 4.81*** |
| γ8 | -7.0405 | -4.49*** |
| γ9 | 8.9498 | 5.04*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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