V-Lab
Grp Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
6,892.54
decreased by 330.76
1 Week
7,057.54
decreased by 165.76
1 Month
5,802.23
decreased by 1,421.07
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2009 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.72 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0430 | 12.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9510 | 246.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0120 | 1.30 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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