V-Lab
Grp Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
6,518.46
increased by 450.70
1 Week
6,048.46
decreased by 19.30
1 Month
6,131.23
increased by 63.47
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.73 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0431 | 12.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9510 | 247.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0117 | 1.27 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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