V-Lab
Hyperscale Data Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
12,471.27
decreased by 225.85
1 Week
11,961.72
decreased by 735.40
1 Month
9,146.70
decreased by 3,550.42
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 34657 trading days (~137.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0414 | 4.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1875 | 2.03** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8125 | 8.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0744 | -6.30*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
34657 days
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