V-Lab
Hyperscale Data Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
25,018.30
decreased by 3,753.72
1 Week
30,746.76
increased by 1,974.74
1 Month
16,367.68
decreased by 12,404.34
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 1996 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 30136 trading days (~119.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0432 | 4.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1877 | 2.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8123 | 12.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0737 | -8.15*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
30136 days
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