Hyperscale Data Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
6,550.11
increased by 888.78
1 Week
6,640.58
increased by 979.25
1 Month
6,325.33
increased by 664.00
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 36481 trading days (~144.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0405 | 4.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1873 | 1.68* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8127 | 7.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0748 | -5.29*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
36481 days
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