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GPI for Urban Growth Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 2nd, 2026

1 Day

832.14

decreased by 188.85

1 Week

989.02

decreased by 31.97

1 Month

1,287.05

increased by 266.06

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GPI for Urban Growth ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 26, 2012 to Jul 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3168
2.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2393
8.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7395
28.24***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-5.4453
-1.43
γ213.4182
1.68*
γ3-12.5269
-2.07**
γ46.3104
3.12***
γ5-3.6569
-5.30***
γ63.3030
7.12***
γ7-2.9937
-4.75***
γ83.1673
2.34**
γ9-2.7588
-1.70*

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days