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GPI for Urban Growth Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 9th, 2026

1 Day

731.36

increased by 46.30

1 Week

838.16

increased by 153.10

1 Month

1,085.95

increased by 400.89

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GPI for Urban Growth ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 26, 2012 to Aug 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.5710
3.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2310
8.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7431
28.56***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-2.3235
-0.61
γ27.0309
0.88
γ3-7.8593
-1.29
γ44.9032
2.24**
γ5-3.6202
-5.20***
γ63.2211
6.65***
γ7-2.8914
-5.19***
γ83.0995
2.48**
γ9-2.7848
-1.83*

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days