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GPI for Urban Growth Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026

1 Day

1,225.26

decreased by 370.52

1 Week

993.60

decreased by 602.18

1 Month

958.22

decreased by 637.56

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GPI for Urban Growth ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 26, 2012 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2894
2.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2380
8.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7402
28.27***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-5.4376
-1.45
γ213.3906
1.69*
γ3-12.4375
-2.06**
γ46.1360
3.04***
γ5-3.4451
-4.76***
γ63.0962
5.80***
γ7-2.8451
-5.21***
γ83.0974
2.40**
γ9-2.4782
-1.61

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days