V-Lab
GPI for Urban Growth Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 2nd, 2026
1 Day
832.14
decreased by 188.85
1 Week
989.02
decreased by 31.97
1 Month
1,287.05
increased by 266.06
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 26, 2012 to Jul 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3168 | 2.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2393 | 8.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7395 | 28.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -5.4453 | -1.43 |
| γ2 | 13.4182 | 1.68* |
| γ3 | -12.5269 | -2.07** |
| γ4 | 6.3104 | 3.12*** |
| γ5 | -3.6569 | -5.30*** |
| γ6 | 3.3030 | 7.12*** |
| γ7 | -2.9937 | -4.75*** |
| γ8 | 3.1673 | 2.34** |
| γ9 | -2.7588 | -1.70* |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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