V-Lab
GPI for Urban Growth ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
1,283.34
1 Week
1,099.41
1 Month
1,138.98
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 26, 2012 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1589 | 1.91* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8159 | 67.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0305 | 0.21 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0211 | 3.59*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9788 | 56.17*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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