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GPI for Urban Growth ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 2nd, 2026

1 Day

1,162.94

decreased by 141.53

1 Week

1,295.69

decreased by 8.78

1 Month

1,525.76

increased by 221.29

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GPI for Urban Growth ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 26, 2012 to Jul 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1594
1.92*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8154
68.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0305
0.21
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0211
3.52***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9788
55.80***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days