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GPI for Urban Growth ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026

1 Day

1,283.34

decreased by 210.22

1 Week

1,099.41

decreased by 394.15

1 Month

1,138.98

decreased by 354.58

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of GPI for Urban Growth ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 26, 2012 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1589
1.91*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8159
67.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0305
0.21
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0211
3.59***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9788
56.17***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days