V-Lab
GPI for Urban Growth ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 2nd, 2026
1 Day
1,162.94
1 Week
1,295.69
1 Month
1,525.76
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 26, 2012 to Jul 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1594 | 1.92* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8154 | 68.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0305 | 0.21 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0211 | 3.52*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9788 | 55.80*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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