GPI for Urban Growth Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, October 18th, 2026
1 Day
879.39
decreased by 33.90
1 Week
921.31
increased by 8.02
1 Month
1,052.87
increased by 139.58
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 26, 2012 to Oct 15, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 306 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~306 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.14 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9574 | 45.57*** |
| γleverage | 0.0807 | 4.12*** |
0.998
Persistence306d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.14 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9574 | 45.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0807 | 4.12*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
306 days
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