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GPI for Urban Growth Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, October 18th, 2026

1 Day

879.39

decreased by 33.90

1 Week

921.31

increased by 8.02

1 Month

1,052.87

increased by 139.58

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GPI for Urban Growth ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 26, 2012 to Oct 15, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 306 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~306 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.14
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9574
45.57***
γleverage0.0807
4.12***

0.998

Persistence

306d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.14
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9574
45.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0807
4.12***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

306 days