V-Lab
GPI for Urban Growth Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
1,118.11
decreased by 44.48
1 Week
986.27
decreased by 176.32
1 Month
1,102.93
decreased by 59.66
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 26, 2012 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 307 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9574 | 181.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0806 | 15.92*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
307 days
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