V-Lab
GPI for Urban Growth Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 2nd, 2026
1 Day
1,185.53
decreased by 29.95
1 Week
1,269.96
increased by 54.48
1 Month
1,435.58
increased by 220.10
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 26, 2012 to Jul 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 312 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9574 | 180.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0808 | 15.85*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
312 days
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