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V-Lab

Alphabet Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

1.40

decreased by 0.06

1 Week

1.45

decreased by 0.01

1 Month

1.41

decreased by 0.05

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Alphabet Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 19, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1859
10.50***
αARCH0.0545
11.18***
βGARCH0.9368
178.99***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0104
-8.43***

0.991

Persistence

79d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1859
10.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0545
11.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9368
178.99***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0104
-8.43***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

79 days