V-Lab
Alphabet Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
1.40
decreased by 0.06
1 Week
1.45
decreased by 0.01
1 Month
1.41
decreased by 0.05
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1859 | 10.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0545 | 11.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9368 | 178.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0104 | -8.43*** |
0.991
Persistence79d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1859 | 10.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0545 | 11.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9368 | 178.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0104 | -8.43*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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