V-Lab
Alphabet Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
1.39
increased by 0.04
1 Week
1.39
increased by 0.04
1 Month
1.58
increased by 0.23
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1835 | 10.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0545 | 11.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9368 | 178.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0105 | -8.36*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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