V-Lab
Alphabet Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
1.73
decreased by 0.02
1 Week
1.76
increased by 0.01
1 Month
1.59
decreased by 0.16
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1865 | 10.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 11.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9367 | 178.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0103 | -8.28*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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