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Alphabet Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

1.27

increased by 0.02

1 Week

1.28

increased by 0.03

1 Month

1.37

increased by 0.12

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:07 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Alphabet Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 19, 2004 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1835
10.48***
αARCH0.0544
11.18***
βGARCH0.9369
179.21***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0105
-8.50***

0.991

Persistence

79d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1835
10.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0544
11.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9369
179.21***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0105
-8.50***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

79 days