V-Lab
Alphabet Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2.14
decreased by 0.09
1 Week
2.07
decreased by 0.16
1 Month
1.76
decreased by 0.47
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 480 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0195 | 8.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0148 | 10.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9500 | 850.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0677 | 20.23*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
480 days
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