V-Lab
Alphabet Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
1.71
decreased by 0.06
1 Week
1.77
increased by 0.00
1 Month
1.81
increased by 0.04
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 640 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~640 daysAsymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0174 | 2.03** |
| αARCH | 0.0155 | 2.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9502 | 215.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.0664 | 4.98*** |
0.999
Persistence640d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0174 | 2.03** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0155 | 2.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9502 | 215.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0664 | 4.98*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
640 days
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