V-Lab
Alphabet Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
1.96
decreased by 0.06
1 Week
1.95
decreased by 0.07
1 Month
1.92
decreased by 0.10
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 497 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0194 | 8.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0148 | 10.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9500 | 852.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0676 | 20.27*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
497 days
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