Alphabet Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
2.10
decreased by 0.03
1 Week
2.04
decreased by 0.09
1 Month
1.70
decreased by 0.43
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 02:38 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 785 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~785 daysAsymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0162 | 1.94* |
| αARCH | 0.0161 | 2.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9501 | 216.53*** |
| γleverage | 0.0659 | 4.95*** |
0.999
Persistence785d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0162 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0161 | 2.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9501 | 216.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0659 | 4.95*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
785 days
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