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Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

1,384,347.00

increased by 472,731.70

1 Week

1,616,967.06

increased by 705,351.76

1 Month

2,242,625.96

increased by 1,331,010.66

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC

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graph of Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 489 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~489 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9657
3.72***
αARCH0.3978
7.15***
βGARCH0.6007
10.75***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-2.1138
-4.97***

0.999

Persistence

489d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9657
3.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3978
7.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6007
10.75***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-2.1138
-4.97***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

489 days