V-Lab
Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
1,384,347.00
increased by 472,731.70
1 Week
1,616,967.06
increased by 705,351.76
1 Month
2,242,625.96
increased by 1,331,010.66
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 489 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~489 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9657 | 3.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.3978 | 7.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6007 | 10.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.1138 | -4.97*** |
0.999
Persistence489d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9657 | 3.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3978 | 7.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6007 | 10.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.1138 | -4.97*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
489 days
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