V-Lab
Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
2,195,849.00
decreased by 1,554,737.00
1 Week
2,732,525.00
decreased by 1,018,061.00
1 Month
1,465,985.63
decreased by 2,284,600.37
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 392 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~392 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9632 | 3.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.4420 | 7.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5562 | 9.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.2157 | -5.83*** |
0.998
Persistence392d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9632 | 3.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4420 | 7.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5562 | 9.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.2157 | -5.83*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
392 days
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