Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
620,932.40
increased by 168,308.80
1 Week
479,956.62
increased by 27,333.02
1 Month
1,092,717.47
increased by 640,093.87
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2024 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 335 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~335 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9710 | 3.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.4299 | 7.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5680 | 10.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.0403 | -4.98*** |
0.998
Persistence335d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9710 | 3.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4299 | 7.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5680 | 10.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.0403 | -4.98*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
335 days
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