V-Lab
Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
967,425.30
increased by 270,955.30
1 Week
578,666.52
decreased by 117,803.48
1 Month
642,314.51
decreased by 54,155.49
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 413 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9553 | 3.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4457 | 7.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5526 | 9.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.4125 | -6.23*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
413 days
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