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Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

1,262,932.00

decreased by 395,407.00

1 Week

1,554,979.80

decreased by 103,359.20

1 Month

1,777,554.31

increased by 119,215.31

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 12, 2024 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 280 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~280 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9762
3.52***
αARCH0.4329
7.76***
βGARCH0.5646
10.08***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.5959
-3.47***

0.998

Persistence

280d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9762
3.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4329
7.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5646
10.08***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.5959
-3.47***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

280 days