V-Lab
Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
732,916.30
decreased by 118,444.10
1 Week
814,698.32
decreased by 36,662.08
1 Month
928,193.70
increased by 76,833.30
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 442 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9547 | 3.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4269 | 7.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5715 | 9.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.1850 | -4.88*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
442 days
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