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Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

620,932.40

increased by 168,308.80

1 Week

479,956.62

increased by 27,333.02

1 Month

1,092,717.47

increased by 640,093.87

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 12, 2024 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 335 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~335 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9710
3.56***
αARCH0.4299
7.77***
βGARCH0.5680
10.22***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-2.0403
-4.98***

0.998

Persistence

335d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9710
3.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4299
7.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5680
10.22***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-2.0403
-4.98***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

335 days