Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
1,262,932.00
decreased by 395,407.00
1 Week
1,554,979.80
decreased by 103,359.20
1 Month
1,777,554.31
increased by 119,215.31
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2024 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 280 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~280 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9762 | 3.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.4329 | 7.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5646 | 10.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.5959 | -3.47*** |
0.998
Persistence280d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9762 | 3.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4329 | 7.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5646 | 10.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.5959 | -3.47*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
280 days
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