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Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

601,769.60

increased by 138,928.20

1 Week

483,040.44

increased by 20,199.04

1 Month

1,131,990.00

increased by 669,148.60

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Galaxy Payroll Group Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 12, 2024 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.00
αARCH0.2655
2.69***
βGARCH0.6834
20.71***
γleverage0.1022
0.72

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2655
2.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6834
20.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1022
0.72

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days