Grace Kennedy Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
9,837.26
increased by 2,135.71
1 Week
6,633.31
decreased by 1,068.24
1 Month
5,644.72
decreased by 2,056.83
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2003 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9168 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0969 | 5.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8006 | 21.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.9139 | 2.84*** |
| γ2 | -1.2763 | -3.05*** |
| γ3 | 0.3928 | 1.45 |
| γ4 | 0.1097 | 0.34 |
| γ5 | -0.4608 | -1.34 |
| γ6 | 0.5604 | 1.87* |
| γ7 | -0.5600 | -2.59*** |
| γ8 | 0.7242 | 3.65*** |
| γ9 | -0.5608 | -2.78*** |
| γ10 | 0.2890 | 1.28 |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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