Grace Kennedy Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
9,835.79
1 Week
6,241.64
1 Month
5,474.42
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2003 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1145 | 0.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7177 | 19.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0084 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0179 | 0.07 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9821 | 138.91*** |
Persistence:
0.836
Half-life:
4 days
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