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Grace Kennedy Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

5,291.29

increased by 529.01

1 Week

4,835.01

increased by 72.73

1 Month

5,038.27

increased by 275.99

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Grace Kennedy Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 16, 2003 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 251% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.85
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0058
6.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9870
1,100.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0145
5.89***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-